Phase 2: Microwork trends to consider

Phase 2: Microwork trends to consider

Everyone notices trends in the world around them. Spring 2019’s fashion colour was yellow. Meat-free options are on the rise. Part-time work is growing. Sometimes we base these on facts, but sometimes we just notice things happening. We apply cognitive bias to memory and to make sense of the world around us in the present. We also use it to consider the future, to plan, and to avoid risks. Cognitive bias is a concept introduced by Amos Tversky, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman (Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment).

Kahneman describes fast thinking, which is the kind of thinking we do when we are scanning for signals:

As these links are formed and strengthened, the pattern of associated ideas comes to represent the structure of events in your life, and it determines your interpretation of the present as well as your expectations of the future.

– Daniel Kahneman, Thinking, Fast and Slow

Starting with signals

Cognitive bias helps us to collect signals of change. The microtasking signals sprint is a window into the world of a third-year class of University of Toronto Scarborough Urban Political Geography students. The group is diverse in culture and academic orientation, while at the same time representing what a microtasking target group would look like. Many were seeking part-time work. Also, the group has a good representation of women, and everyone uses tech in their daily lives. 

Two students wrote articles about microwork: Microtasking as a quick fix, and Microwork’s popularity. Both articles point to the trends that emerged from a more in-depth analysis of the signals.

Identifying the trends

The TWIG research team collected even more signals. Together we created a dataset of hundreds of signals. These are based on things that are actually happening right now. Signals are the beginning of the foresight journey. Specifically, we wanted to consider how microwork exists in our world today. Then, what we can learn by thinking about it in a future state.

Signals of change are the basis for microtasking trends. The team mapped over 400 signals to 12 microwork trends. The trends are what is happening now. 

People familiar with microwork or workforce trends reviewed the trends. We asked roundtable participants to consider what is driving the trends. Then we listened for words that convey a direction such as “increasing,” “growing,” “stopping,” and “failing.”

We settled on 12 microwork trends

A.I.’s eating the work

Microwork trend #1

Advances in fields like machine learning allow de-skilling or full automation of work. Formerly the tasks required human involvement. Microwork refers to these as “human intelligence tasks” or the acronym, “HIT”. A.I. is a significant feature of the Fourth Industrial Age. There is no doubt that it will be as disruptive as previous technological eras. And likely, more. Although the trend has a negative orientation, A.I. is taking on mundane, monotonous, and dangerous tasks. New professions will emerge in the age of A.I. For example, A.I. will beget jobs related to managing A.I. and developing code. HITs include activities that need a philosophical or values orientation.

Subtrends

• Vast improvements and investment in A.I. technology let us automate judgements at scale.
• Higher-value tasks may be susceptible to breakdown into microwork.

Change drivers

Intelligent advances – Built for profit – Uneven Growth – Policy Lag

Everybody’s hustling

Microwork trend #2

For many people, working life as one job for life, much less one job at a time, is no longer the norm. Many people are temping and freelancing. People juggle many roles, build side-hustles, and keep working longer in life. Income precarity and the need for multiple income streams is no one’s idea of a good thing. But there’s also a concern that government interventions limit the opportunities to earn. 

The containers (work-life) blur. Income stagnates as people “do-more-with-less.” There’s a sense that everybody is working and nobody is working.

Subtrends

• “Gigification” is actually a mega-trend that normalizes work outside the standard employment relationship.
• The side-hustle is a subtrend that brings the reality of wages shortfall together with a lifestyle vibe.
• Canadians are living (and also working) longer. A little extra cash or points isn’t the worst thing.

Change drivers

Social modernization

T.O. grind

Microwork trend #3

There’s consensus that Toronto residents face rising affordability challenges. Toronto has global technology status. Yet, technology also widens the gap between knowledge workers and service-level workers. Grinding T.O. also acknowledges that everybody’s hustling. There’s still a pull-yourself-up-by-your-bootstraps vibe in the city.

Subtrends

• The dark side. There’s a rising affordability crisis for all but the most affluent. The sub-trend increases economic pressure on workers.
• Toronto’s risen to a global tech hotspot. The city’s A.I. emphasis position it to continue that leading role.

Change drivers 

Uneven Growth

Intimate labour

Microwork trend #4

Microwork can get very personal. It commodifies small tasks that need human sensibilities. People sell access to their opinions, location and tastes. It also extends to befriending, crowdsourcing advice, and opinions. HITs give the automated services sentience.

In one case is a young woman who used an app that made it appear that she had a boyfriend. A microworker composed text messages sent at regular intervals. When she no longer needed to demonstrate that she was in a relationship, she kept the service going. She found the communication so reassuring that she felt she would miss it.

Increased privacy concerns balance this trend. People are less apt to share information without compelling reasons or adequate compensation. Litigious action also deters people from engaging in online intimacy.

Subtrends

• Polls and surveys are a subtrend. Most everyone loves to give their opinion on everything.
• The internet and social media support a sense of non-commital, easy intimacy that is transactional in nature. 

Change drivers

Uneven Growth | Social modernization

Work as play

Microwork trend #5

Work can mean very different things to different people. Completing an image-tagging task to unlock a cat video is casual work for casual income. In a city like Toronto, where rents are high, gamified microtasks can be fun for pocket change. When there is higher worker supply than work demand, microwork platforms and requestors set rates for play rather than pay.

Subtrends

• Microwork as casual work, casual income.
• Free stuff is always a compelling reason to spend time on tasks. Couponing nets out to be non-productive work when viewed in the context of wages.
• Microwork is ubiquitous: we’re all already microworkers. Think tagging those images for fire hydrants!
• Students are smart and need money. This drives a trend toward virtualizing jobs such as tutoring.

Change drivers

Social modernization

People as a service

Microwork trend #6

Platforms make coordination with outside parties easier. Thus, more jobs can be outsourced, replacing permanent staff. Breaking down jobs into small projects and even smaller tasks has become commonplace. Some of this takes place in direct relationship with contractors. But the presence of platforms as intermediaries makes it easier to view people as a service. The result is that there is more awareness of the gig economy and crowdsourcing. This might also shift consumer values and influence corporate practices. Decent work, fair pay, and other labour movements shed light on outsourcing, offshoring, and labour arbitrage. Wagemark is an exemplar.

Wagemark is an international wage standard used by companies, non-profit organizations and government agencies to certify that the ratio between their highest and lowest earners is competitive and sustainable.

Subtrends

• As microjobs get more specialized, they give rise to more specialized platforms.
• Companies are outsourcing for services that used to permanent staff hires.
• All work becomes gig, contract, or precarious.

Change drivers

Collaborative Connections | Built for profit

Robots are making jobs

Microwork trend #7

A.I. development actually drives microwork demand. Microjobbing is the new labour and service economy work. But, it doesn’t create a career path. There is a shortage of people who can fill skilled jobs related to A.I.

Toronto’s profile as a tech centre is also on the rise. This extends to Toronto as an education and training hub for new technology jobs. Although the training is often digitalized, developers and instructors are often local to Toronto.

Change Drivers

Intelligent advances | Uneven Growth

Solidarity in seconds

Microwork trend #8

Most microwork platforms don’t offer forums or community chatroom for microjobbers. Microworkers self-organize. They use independent forums and other communal tactics. Attempts to advocate for better pay and conditions are gaining traction. 

Platforms and requesters hold power to bypass organized workers. Furthermore, the current regulatory environment allows platforms to shut out workers with impunity. A basic income for microworkers involves coordination across all levels of government. 

Subtrends

• Microjobbing communities and online forums.
• Crowdworkers and unions are attempting to organize the sector to advance workers’ rights.
• The push among activists to establish alternative platforms and digital economic organizations.

Change drivers

Intelligent advances | Uneven Growth | Social modernization

The microstate

Microwork trend #9

Governments are being called on to develop microwork labour markets. But they are not sure how to regulate or operate in a non-standard employment environment. Interventions might include new policies, public projects or guaranteed income pilots. In Toronto, inclusive economy programs align with considerations that could help microworkers. 

Subtrend

• Urban cowboy e-capitalism continues to bypass dysfunctional government policy-making.

Change drivers

Collaborative Connections | Intelligent advances | Policy Lag

Lifesaver

Microwork trend #10

Many people who are shut out of standard employment turn to microwork. It can be the primary source of income for young workers, students, caregivers, people with disabilities, retirees, and newcomers. Unfortunately, the perceived “access” and “equality” of microwork can further disadvantage people who face barriers to employment. The lifesaver can trap them in low-paying work with no opportunities for advancement.

Subtrends

• Global crises are displacing human populations. This cuts them off from conventional work opportunities.
• Microwork platforms mean that global workforces are now available for hire by anyone.
• “Mom jobs” is a subtrend related to women caregivers. The marketing juice is “why not get online and do something productive?”
• Microwork as modern-day manufacturing jobs, where workers are paid based on production.

Change drivers

Policy Lag

Microworking for good

Microwork trend #11

People seek intrinsic benefits beyond their earnings. For one thing, Microwork offers a feeling of being your own boss. Sometimes, it is also positioned as a learning opportunity. Then there’s the sense of satisfaction of completing tasks that benefit others. From tagging photos to translating languages, microwork can offer intrinsic rewards. The trend could move in the other direction. As we spend more time in front of screens, it may be that people seek place-based opportunities. But, people who want to microtask will seek it out. For them, the gig economy is alright, they’re OK with the screen time, and they like the flexibility or diversity of work microjobbing offers.

Subtrends

• Using microtasking for research, by academics for research and survey recruitment.
• Canadians are working longer, and microtasking can fit with a mature lifestyle.
• The idea that participating in microtasks as a learning activity can help build memory and mental agility.
• The entrepreneurial mindset responds to the microwork vibe.

Change driver

Social modernization

Borderless work

Microwork trend #12

Any of 3.5+ billion people already online can pick up microtasks. Microwork platforms represent a massive, borderless workforce available 24/7. Cell and internet access levels are projected to rise. Developments such as automated translation further reduce collaborative barriers. Also on the rise are issues and concerns connected to labour arbitrage and offshoring. Then, even greater precarity exists for microworkers with unreliable internet access.

Subtrends

• Machine and machine-assisted translation tools continue to improve.
• Internet use continues to grow, with quality of connection also improving.

Change drivers

Collaborative Connections | Intelligent advances | Built for profit | Uneven Growth | Policy Lag